- Are We at the Bottom Yet? Why Timing Doesn’t Work
It happened again today…and yesterday for that matter. I inevibility get the question, ”What is the Phoenix market going to do?” and that is usually coupled by “Are prices going to continue to go down?” What they REALLY mean is, “I want you to tell me the exact moment that the prices are at their lowest and then I want to buy my dream home.” This way of thinking is flawed for a couple of different reasons:
- You know the saying “Hindsight is 20/20?” It is a common saying for a reason and it pertains to real estate markets, too. It takes three months of “different” activity to create a trend. The problems is that we won’t know that we’ve hit bottom until we are already three months past the bottom. Look at this diagram:
- Different areas and communities bottom out and trend a little differently. Did you know that houses are flying, FLYING off the market in Queen Creek? They are cheap but it’ll take some doing to get one that you want. Multiple offers, over asking price, cash buyers. Sound familiar? My experience recently with a couple of clients out there…20 houses, 4 offers, 1 house (as a back-up offer when the first buyer couldn’t get it done).
- Interest rates play a role, too. Would you rather have a payment on a house that: a). you got for $10,000 less or b). the interest rate was 1% less? HMMM??? Not sure? Food for thought…
- Will you be emotionally invested in your home or is it an investment that you have no real ties to? Even with the quantity of homes on the market right now finding that perfect one is still challenging for some. And what if you lose it by waiting for the price to come down an extra couple of thousand dollars? It’s never fun for anyone (least of all your Realtor) when we have to live with “the one that got away”.
Here’s another diagram for you that depicts the cyclical nature of markets.
My wish for my clients and all the rest of you out there is that we would focus on the safe zones. Is it a safe time to buy? YES!!! Might the market decline a little still? Sure.
Might we be in the Lucky Zone?
Our family spent the past week visiting friends in the beautiful Ladera Ranch in Orange County, CA with some friends and we all enjoyed a couple of days of this crazy wonderment called fog. We returned last night and imagine our surprise to wake to fog again. The picture above was taken this morning in Mesa’s Las Sendas Golf Course Community.
The National Transportation and Safety Board indicates that there are more than 700 fog related fatalities each year. As fog doesn’t occur very often here in (mostly) sunny AZ I thought that a few safety tips were warranted.
- Drive with lights on LOW beam. High beams will reflect off the fog, creating a “white wall” effect that will actually impair vision more.
- Reduce your speed – and watch your speedometer. Fog creates a visual illusion of slow motion when you may actually be speeding.
- Use wipers and defrosters as necessary for maximum visibility.
- Use the right edge of the road or painted road markings as a guide.
- Avoid crossing traffic lanes.
- Travel with the driver’s window partially open. Listen for traffic you can’t see.
- Do not stop on a freeway or heavily traveled road. If your car stalls or becomes disabled, turn your vehicle’s lights off, and take your foot off of the brake pedal. People tend to follow tail lights when driving in fog. Move away from the vehicle to avoid injury.
- Consider postponing your trip until the fog lifts.
Enjoy the change in scenery and be careful out there!
For several years my good friend and client Melissa Jill (who by the way is an amazing photographer) has been working on a her list of 101 Things in 1001 Days. You get the idea, right? It’s pretty easy…think of the things that you say, “Someday I’ll do that” and then write them down and work on actually doing them.
This is something that I have wanted to do for a while but I’ve just recently completed my list. I’ve also called it my Life List. Some of these won’t make it within the 1001 days I’m sure but that’s okay too! I decided that New Year’s Day was a perfect time to kick it off. So without further ado, here it is:
Start Date: January 1, 2009
End Date: September 29, 2011
- take a photography class
- take the family back to Hawaii
- blog every day for a month
- go to the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade
- read one book per month for a year
- lose 20 pounds
- go on a mission trip
- join a networking group
- create 5, 10, 15-year business plans
- buy 2 investment properties
- get a tablet computer (maybe just a normal laptop again?)
- spend a full day at a spa
- cook for the family 3 times a week for a month
- see something on Broadway
- get a professional designation
- become a REO listing agent
- finish all of the quilts I started
- finish a scrapbook for each of the girls
- see the Rockette’s in NY
- take an Alaskan cruise
- cruise on one of the new Disney Ships
- go skiing again
- create a habit of sending a minimum of 5 note cards per day
- walk the Breast Cancer 3-Day
- call my brother before he calls me
- make it through a transaction without the client calling me first
- create and deliver disks for clients with their whole file on it
- visit a farmer’s market
- have brochures created
- learn to surf
- go to Disney World
- go to Europe
- get my brokers license
- create a tree skirt for the Christmas tree
- buy bedroom furniture for our master bedroom
- lose another 20 pounds
- paint our bedroom
- take the dog for a walk
- take a HTML class
- learn about SEO
- have my blog made over
- finish painting the downstairs
- look into having the back patio turned into a deck
- take a train trip
- visit Gary & Sharon in WA again (take the girls this time)
- take another dance class
- get my hair cut & styled at a “fancy” place where they will really tell me what they think looks good for me
- finish my P&P manual
- get good at using my profit and loss statement
- create items of value for out-of-state Realtors to foster referrals
- record some of Grandma’s stories on video
- send the great grandmas pictures of the girls monthly
- visit Niagara falls
- buy a cabin in Greer
- learn to compress my videos so I can add them to the web
- teach 1 technology class/quarter at the office
- have our family pictures taken again
- have the front yard landscaping redone
- go bungee jumping
- spend a day baking for the holidays
- lose another 10 pounds
- go to Yosemite
- sell a multi-million dollar house
- increase my average sales price
- re-do my cards, signs, etc.
- go for day trip with Matt on his bike.
- see my cousins for a visit other than a wedding
- visit Mike & Katie & new baby wherever they wind up.
- create a family blog
- go to Keller Williams’ Family Reunion
- go to Vegas
- read the Harry Potter series again
- go hiking
- do my own version of Dream Dinners
- pay off our debt
- find the right table
- take the girls camping
- get my wedding ring cleaned
- do date night with the girls
- see the Trans Siberian Orchestra again
- see a Celine Dion Concert
- take the girls to see Hannah Montana
- pick fresh strawberries again
- stay at the Ice Hotel
- see the Aurora Borealis
- knit something other than a dish rag
- go snowmobiling
- clean out my closet and only keep things that I actually wear
- move into an office at the office
- throw a game night party
- create templates in Zipforms
- create a detailed marketing plan for the year
- write quarterly letters to the child we sponsor for a year
- spend a day hanging out just with my sister
- own a perfect “little black dress”
- pay it forward somewhere
- make the long trek across the street to visit Matt’s grandma weekly
- wear a bathing suit and feel good about it
- organize files on my computer and keep them that way
- volunteer with Meals on Wheels
- get into the habit of bringing my own reusable bags to the store
I’ll keep you posted as to my progress! Happy New Year!
